Methodology & editorial standards
Tremor Brief is an independent financial-market news and commentary publication of Creo Holdings LLC. The Live Board is designed to make conditions observable—not to manufacture certainty.
How signals are chosen
Each gauge must have a stated financial mechanism, an identifiable data source and a threshold that can be applied consistently. The AI-capex board follows the expected transmission path from fragile, debt-dependent infrastructure through public and private credit to flagship equities. The market-regime board separates potential leaders from indicators that only confirm severity after a decline begins.
Calibration
The general-market gauges were reviewed against every drawdown of at least 12% since 2004, with longer histories used for signals whose source data permits it. The site states known false positives, false negatives and timing limits. Margin debt is displayed as a fragility gauge but deliberately excluded from the calibrated composite.
Data and updates
Market data comes from delayed market-data providers and official economic series, including Federal Reserve Economic Data where applicable. Some monthly data arrives with a publication lag. Every live panel displays an as-of time, and a dark or unavailable gauge is not silently estimated.
Editorial rules
- Plain English before market shorthand.
- No invented prices, statistics or events.
- Fragility is not presented as timing.
- Confirmation is not mislabeled as prediction.
- Bull and bear evidence are both acknowledged.
- Educational commentary is never represented as personalized advice.
Corrections
If a factual or methodological error is found, Tremor corrects the page and updates the relevant date. Send correction requests—with a source—to support@tremorbrief.com.
Publisher
Tremor Brief is published by Creo Holdings LLC. Questions about the publication, data presentation or subscriptions can be sent to support@tremorbrief.com.